BY RICHARD LINDZEN
Wednesday, April 12, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT
There have been repeated claims that this past year's
hurricane activity was another sign of human-induced climate
change. Everything from the heat wave in Paris to heavy snows in
Buffalo has been blamed on people burning gasoline to fuel their
cars, and coal and natural gas to heat, cool and electrify their
homes. Yet how can a barely discernible, one-degree increase in
the recorded global mean temperature since the late 19th century
possibly gain public acceptance as the source of recent weather
catastrophes? And how can it translate into unlikely claims
about future catastrophes?
The answer has much to do with misunderstanding the science
of climate, plus a willingness to debase climate science into a
triangle of alarmism. Ambiguous scientific statements about
climate are hyped by those with a vested interest in alarm, thus
raising the political stakes for policy makers who provide funds
for more science research to feed more alarm to increase the
political stakes. After all, who puts money into
science--whether for AIDS, or space, or climate--where there is
nothing really alarming? Indeed, the success of climate alarmism
can be counted in the increased federal spending on climate
research from a few hundred million dollars pre-1990 to $1.7
billion today. It can also be seen in heightened spending on
solar, wind, hydrogen, ethanol and clean coal technologies, as
well as on other energy-investment decisions.
But there is a more sinister side to this feeding frenzy.
Scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen their grant
funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves libeled as
industry stooges, scientific hacks or worse. Consequently, lies
about climate change gain credence even when they fly in the
face of the science that supposedly is their basis.

To understand the misconceptions perpetuated about climate
science and the climate of intimidation, one needs to grasp some
of the complex underlying scientific issues. First, let's start
where there is agreement. The public, press and policy makers
have been repeatedly told that three claims have widespread
scientific support: Global temperature has risen about a degree
since the late 19th century; levels of CO2 in the atmosphere
have increased by about 30% over the same period; and CO2 should
contribute to future warming. These claims are true. However,
what the public fails to grasp is that the claims neither
constitute support for alarm nor establish man's responsibility
for the small amount of warming that has occurred. In fact,
those who make the most outlandish claims of alarm are actually
demonstrating skepticism of the very science they say supports
them. It isn't just that the alarmists are trumpeting model
results that we know must be wrong. It is that they are
trumpeting catastrophes that couldn't happen even if the
models were right as justifying costly policies to try to
prevent global warming.
If
the models are correct, global warming reduces the temperature
differences between the poles and the equator. When you have
less difference in temperature, you have less excitation of
extratropical storms, not more. And, in fact, model runs support
this conclusion. Alarmists have drawn some support for increased
claims of tropical storminess from a casual claim by Sir John
Houghton of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) that a warmer world would have more evaporation, with
latent heat providing more energy for disturbances. The problem
with this is that the ability of evaporation to drive tropical
storms relies not only on temperature but humidity as well, and
calls for drier, less humid air. Claims for starkly higher
temperatures are based upon there being more humidity, not
less--hardly a case for more storminess with global warming.
So how is it that we don't have more scientists speaking up
about this junk science? It's my belief that many scientists
have been cowed not merely by money but by fear. An example:
Earlier this year, Texas Rep. Joe Barton issued letters to
paleoclimatologist Michael Mann and some of his co-authors
seeking the details behind a taxpayer-funded analysis that
claimed the 1990s were likely the warmest decade and 1998 the
warmest year in the last millennium. Mr. Barton's concern was
based on the fact that the IPCC had singled out Mr. Mann's work
as a means to encourage policy makers to take action. And they
did so before his work could be replicated and tested--a task
made difficult because Mr. Mann, a key IPCC author, had refused
to release the details for analysis. The scientific community's
defense of Mr. Mann was, nonetheless, immediate and harsh. The
president of the National Academy of Sciences--as well as the
American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical
Union--formally protested, saying that Rep. Barton's singling
out of a scientist's work smacked of intimidation.
All of which starkly contrasts to the silence of the
scientific community when anti-alarmists were in the crosshairs
of then-Sen. Al Gore. In 1992, he ran two congressional hearings
during which he tried to bully dissenting scientists, including
myself, into changing our views and supporting his climate
alarmism. Nor did the scientific community complain when Mr.
Gore, as vice president, tried to enlist Ted Koppel in a witch
hunt to discredit anti-alarmist scientists--a request that Mr.
Koppel deemed publicly inappropriate. And they were mum when
subsequent articles and books by Ross Gelbspan libelously
labeled scientists who differed with Mr. Gore as stooges of the
fossil-fuel industry.
Sadly, this is only the tip of a non-melting iceberg. In
Europe, Henk Tennekes was dismissed as research director of the
Royal Dutch Meteorological Society after questioning the
scientific underpinnings of global warming. Aksel Winn-Nielsen,
former director of the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization,
was tarred by Bert Bolin, first head of the IPCC, as a tool of
the coal industry for questioning climate alarmism. Respected
Italian professors Alfonso Sutera and Antonio Speranza
disappeared from the debate in 1991, apparently losing
climate-research funding for raising questions.
And then there are the peculiar standards in place in
scientific journals for articles submitted by those who raise
questions about accepted climate wisdom. At Science and Nature,
such papers are commonly refused without review as being without
interest. However, even when such papers are published,
standards shift. When I, with some colleagues at NASA, attempted
to determine how clouds behave under varying temperatures, we
discovered what we called an "Iris Effect," wherein upper-level
cirrus clouds contracted with increased temperature, providing a
very strong negative climate feedback sufficient to greatly
reduce the response to increasing CO2. Normally, criticism of
papers appears in the form of letters to the journal to which
the original authors can respond immediately. However, in this
case (and others) a flurry of hastily prepared papers appeared,
claiming errors in our study, with our responses delayed months
and longer. The delay permitted our paper to be commonly
referred to as "discredited." Indeed, there is a strange
reluctance to actually find out how climate really behaves. In
2003, when the draft of the U.S. National Climate Plan urged a
high priority for improving our knowledge of climate
sensitivity, the National Research Council instead urged support
to look at the impacts of the warming--not whether it
would actually happen.

Alarm rather than genuine scientific curiosity, it appears, is
essential to maintaining funding. And only the most senior
scientists today can stand up against this alarmist gale, and
defy the iron triangle of climate scientists, advocates and
policymakers.
M. Lindzen is Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric
Science at MIT.